Now that our business looks to be over


#62

We don’t need Messi’s to finish half way up league one. We are not far off there now. He also doesn’t need to change all of the team to improve it so gelling need not be an issue. He has them all week to work with. Just having options will be a big help. For example, Gordon seems better coming off the bench than starting.
I will go with the budget constraints so far, however, if we are going to judge progress than mid-table (which 60 points may or may not achieve) is hardly tearing up trees from this position.


#63

No that’s obviously not what I’m saying. The point is there are some players there that are long term deals.

In terms of Form we are. A very very long way off it.

That’s massively naive. Better teams with better players than us have put teams together that haven’t gelled.

I completely disagree when you look at the context, which I’ve highlighted throughout this thread. We are a relegation tipped team, who after a good start sit 22nd in the form table that has only just backed it’s manager and put and actual squad together (sort of). 60 points is a ■■■■■■■ massive achievement if they do it. It’s bonkers to suggest otherwise. There’s literally nothing to suggest we will suddenly start playing like a team just outside the play offs (which is the minimum requirement to hit that 60 points target).


#64

It would help the debate if you took my comments holistically, rather than selecting phrases out of context.
Relegation tipped team? Based on last season’s results and the lack of transfer activity up until the odds fixers did their work.
Reality was that we had a fantastic start with some of the new players gelling straight away. We lost our way somewhat, but there is absolutely no reason why we cannot get to 60 points with the squad we have and 17 games left. Form is temporary as they say, and can be reversed just as easily given the right circumstances. The new signings could well be the cartalyst.

If we finish with 55 or less we may actually go down and that would represent a massive fail in my view.


#65

What about your over riding point haven’t I addressed?

Yeah, that’s kind of how tipping works. You can’t just say half way through a horse race “well this horse was backed to finish 20th but now it’s in the middle of the pack it’s not over achieving any more.”.

Of course it would. Because football fans are fickle with short memories :man_shrugging: It would be a fail for sure but you are saying any less than 60 points is a fail, not relegation. and 55 points is enough to keep you up at walking pace. In fact 51 points has been good enough to keep you up for every season of the last 10 years. some years 45 points would have done the trick. Never more than 51 though.

The new signings could be a catalyst, or they could be the best depth we can hope for and we continue to struggle like we have been and we full fill early season predictions. Everything clicking into place and us playing just outside play off football shouldn’t be the minimum requirement though. That’s my entire point.


#66

After 12 games we had 22 points. We then got 3 points from our next 5 games so after 17 games we had 25 points and were 11th in the league.

I don’t see why being disappointed at getting less than 25 points from our last 17 games with what I believe to be a better squad than we had then is “madness” as you described it earlier. You may think that staying up is success and that is your prerogative.

Oh, and fickle - 47 years supporting all the ups and downs -never waivered.


#67

That’s loyalty. Different to being fickle. Fickle is changing your mind half way through a season what is “acceptable” and calling it a failure if it isn’t achieved. It’s nothing personal, most football fans are.

Yes? How have we done since then?

For all the reasons I gave you further on in this thread. I believe I listed them A B and C and then pointed out we are 22nd in the form table and people are basing expectations on players we haven’t even seen play. It’s got nothing to do with prerogative, it’s realism.

We MAY perform exactly the way you are predicting. It shouldn’t be the minimum requirement though. That’s not opinion it’s common sense.


#68

Best bit of business out of that lot, can see Sloppies finishing at least half a league above us at close of play.


#69

As it stands that would require them closing a 23 point gap on teams like Charlton and Sunderland and finishing 4th. In 17 games.

What planet are some of the predictions in this thread from!?


#70

Sorry for the late reply, I nipped up to Brecon for a spot of lunch and a view of the snow covered Beacons :smiley:

OK

Fickle: Here is a definition:

“changing frequently, especially as regards one’s loyalties or affections”.

Neither applies to me.

With respect to my hopes and expectations. You may recall that I posted on another thread, that I have a spread bet on Walsall’s season points which I bought at 55 for 25 quid a point. This means that for every point above 55 I win 25 quid and below I lose 25 quid. Obviously at the beginning of the season I had confidence of at least a mid table finish, otherwise I would not have placed that bet. After the good start I had the opportunity to cash this out at a peak of 64 points, however, I decided to let it run as I still had confidence in the team. So, the difference between us is that you believe that staying up by a point is success, whereas I believe that we are better than that - differing opinions, that is all.

Having watched around half of the games this season, I have no reason to change my views. There are loads of teams in this league that are certainly no better than us and in many games it has been clear that we are not far away. Indeed the positive start to the season is evidence of that.
Our centre forward has recently come into a spell of good form and now has Matt Jarvis to provide service. The new fullback Norman made an impressive debut and didn’t need time to “gel”. We have now signed Oteh who looks an excellent signing, resigned Laird and Fitzwater who are known entities with the lad from Villa who comes with good reports. Add to that the return of Edwards from injury.
All the above lead me to have a high level of confidence that we can secure 25 points from the remaining 17 games and therefore achieve 60 points. If we achieve less, I will be disappointed, if we are relegated then I will question the manager’s ability to take the club forward. Both of which are personal to me and if you have a different view then that is fine!

I don’t think that your views are “madness” though, just based on different thinking.


#71

Fickle in your expectations, not your loyalty to the club. I felt I explained that but clearly it needs clarifying for you.

I literally have no idea what bet you are talking about. All I know is 55 point would DEFINITELY keep us up. Contrary to what you said. If that or top half/mid table was your belief at the start of the season good for you but you were very much in the minority and against the bookies. That doesn’t mean your “expectation” is realistic or is a fair bench mark to judge success and failure, it simply means that it’s your expectation.

You can’t have watched us much recently then but it really is neither here nor there. Look at the league table. Look at the form table. Look at the pie in the sky form predictions I’ve already addressed that require near play off form from a team in the bottom half stuffed full of new players.

If we are relegated from here so will I. There’s a massive chasm between that and 60 points.

If that’s your minimum expectation you are being unrealistic. It really is that simple.


#72

I have watched 7 of the last 9 games


#73

I’m even more baffled for where these adjusted expectations come from them. A couple of loans apparently


#74

Don’t be a ■■■■ - where have I said that my view is based on a couple of loan signings?

Matt Jarvis, Cook in form, Edwards back, more choices for defence/midfield/forwards. All stated on previous post. Look at the bigger picture rather than just the scoreline.


#75

You didn’t say that. I did. Because it’s all I can ascertain has really changed. To be fair we’ve also signed a couple of very inexperienced players too that really could go one way or the other.

The bigger picture like Edwards has been playing the entire time our form has been atrocious as has Cook and Matty Jarvis replaced a player that was signed to the championship? As was Fitzwater. The bigger picture that we’ve won one game in the last 9 and your expecting us to win a third of the last 17?


#76

I have confidence, yes.


#77

I know that. You are expecting us to go an absolute tear. It’s unrealistic. That’s not an opinion it’s fact. Especially as a minimum requirement.

I hope you are right. You may be right. But to call it a minimum is madness, like I said.


#78

I wonder if Keates and the players share your negativity?


#79

Negativity? How’s it negativity?

Setting unrealistic goals develops negativity. It’s like me going down Manhattans on a Saturday and my minimum expectation is pulling Emma Watson. It’s not going to happen and I’m just going to go home disappointed.

And I never even said it wouldn’t happen. It’s literally the best case scenario. And what is literally the best case scenario is what you are saying is a minimum requirement.


#80

:joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy::joy:


#81

25 points from 17 games is not an unrealistic goal, maybe challenging but far from unrealistic. l. We did it in the first 17 games, did we not and were only 11th in the league at that stage. I would have a bet now that Keates would not think it unrealistic either.

I don’t know who Emma Watson is so cannot comment.

Anyway, I think we have probably done this to death now and I respect your view, but will stick with my optimism. Let’s revisit at the end of the season. I imagine that you will be the happier of the two of us as the 60 points we end up with will delight you and will only satisfy me. :wink: