Relegation calculator (again)


#161

Well i just did it and we get promoted? it’s got to be right :stuck_out_tongue:


#162

I did it and we got into Europe, beating both Ajax and Barca in the final.


#163

Can we arrange a DoS attack on their server?


#164

Part 105 of a 20 something’s life going wrong:

Decided to have a look at all the teams’ run ins for half an hour last night.

Worrying thing when I looked at likes of Scunny, Accy, Bristol Rovers, Sloppies, Oxford etc is no one has a nightmare run e.g. basically just playing the top 8 in last 10 games.

If you had to find one team who has that it would be Walsall.

Everyone else has the odd top team like Barnsley or Luton but also lots of games v bottom half. The bottom 3 also have decent run ins.

Only conclusion I can really draw is I don’t think 50 points will be enough, certainly not to be safe before last day particularly as the GD might be getting worse over next four games and that’s usually a safety net.

Target has to be 52 points which I think was enough last season. Good thing is the team have given themselves a proper chance of that with how they’ve performed last three. This level will be needed in April.


#165

The big worry at present is that the dense pack will definitely start to thin out across the rest of March. Due to the sheer number of teams looking over their shoulder (or worse), every round of fixtures for the next several weeks has three or more fixtures pitting two relegation rivals against each other. Rochdale’s current run (starting yesterday) is, inversely, as ridiculous as our upcoming one- all against sides within a couple of points of them, either way. The next four weeks will determine their fate, I reckon.

Southend would’ve been right in the thick of it, had they not won yesterday. We could possibly do with them pulling away a bit- of our remaining, more-winnable fixtures, I’ve got them and Wycombe earmarked as potentially having one eye on the beach when we play them.

We’ll almost definitely have slipped a few places by the time the Doncaster game is over, just due to what the fixture list has thrown up elsewhere. Oxford at home and Accrington away are looking Northampton-levels of massive, at present.


#166

Southend drew 2-2 yesterday.

They generally either win or lose so I think they’ll be fine. Actually want them and Wycombe to be safe by mid April as generally mid table teams with nothing to play for are what you want in a run in.

Another thing that could impact on things is Blackpool losing 12 points although I get the feeling EFL will be leinent now Osytons are out of the club.


#167

The fishy predictor thing is just random. They don’t base it on anything, one will show a team ending up 21st, do it again and it’ll show the same side in 15th. Not worth bothering with.

After38 used to be a good site for predictions and was more indepth with likelihoods of victories and moving up etc. Seemed to disappear after the 16/17 season I think though. There must be another one.


#168

No, I wasn’t.

@DanG_WFC is right when he says the appropriately named ‘fishy calculator’ is just random.


#169

Surprised this hasn’t been bumped although I guess two more Kory Roberts threads need to be created I guess. :joy:

Anyway if we go by the three strikes and you’re out principle, the missed penalty at Posh was the first and the second today was Sloppies and Oxford pretty much scoring at the same time to move out of bottom 4.

There is still time but as I’ve said the par needed is going up all the time, not even sure 52 points will be enough with how bad the GD is.

Trouble with so many teams playing each other in the bottom half in the run in is if the teams around you don’t win (good) the teams below and in the bottom 4 then have opportunity to (very bad). Sloppies-Wycombe is the exact example of that. Good that Wycombe are being dragged down to bottom 4 but ultimately Shrewsbury win a very winnable home game and suddenly 50 + points looks very reachable.

Also have to see what Wimbledon are doing aswell, they are like Rochdale last season.

4.50pm today felt like a defining moment in the season. Hope I’m wrong.


#170

In my head we were gone after Wimbledon at home.

I still think that to be the case as we will lose more ground after next two games and I’m not sure we have the wherewithal or experience to manage and navigate the huge games that follow.

The better news since that Wimbledon game is that we are now fighting and some of the players at the heart of that fight will be with us for the fourth division campaign next season.

Having accepted our fate a month or so ago, I think I’m enjoying performances like today more than I would if I was clinging to desperate survival hope.


#171

Fully agree said it myself for a while now just had a feeling this is the season we go down for a couple of months now and i still think we will.performances have been much better recently but its too late for me sadly.


#172

I thought we would be in trouble after Boxing Day, when we were as poor as the plumbing.


#173

If we went down with a whimper I’d be a lot more peed off but Keates and MOC have gotten some fight back in the lads. Shame it’s come a month or two too late but it’s good to see and, as evidenced in the Sunderland match thread, we can take losing if we’ve fought and there’s seems to be some sort of plan.

The Barnsley match will be very interesting. Will heads drop after a couple of unfortunate losses or can the gaffer keep the fire in their bellies?


#174

Think we’re going to need at least a point against Barnsley or Doncaster. I really don’t want to be going into the final 6 games needing 9 (probably 10 due to goal difference) points.


#175

Regardless of Donny’s improved form this season, the record at Keepmoat is unbelievable last 5-6 years, even Whitney managed a 0-3 there (and still there were chants during that game for him to go).

Certainly getting relegation vibes if the team lose there, point minimum. Also think the team can get a draw v Barnsley as they’re struggling to score so think that will be a tight one.


#176

Funny the way some grounds seem lucky and others not.

I was five out of five wins at Rotherham’s Millmoor and been to both Doncaster grounds a few times and am five out of five there too. Must be a Yorkshire thing.

Wigan on the other hand. Must have seen us play at Wigan twelve times and all I have to show are two draws, a late Jorge equaliser and a Jason Lillis brace at their old place.

Pretty decent record at Salop mind.


#177

Been to Oxford twice and seen two 2-1 wins, very similar games aswell in going 2-0 up and then holding off late Oxford goal with five minutes left. Hopefully that decent record against them holds up in April.

However been to Ricoh three times and not even seen Walsall score a goal yet.


#178

Wigan always a bogey team


#179

Saturday will be interesting. They’re missing a massive chunk of their spine, Davies (goalkeeper), Dougal (defensive midfielder), and of course Moore (top scorer), in addition to another two players on international duty. Their recent stats are last 6 games without conceding a goal, and 18 unbeaten which is obviously great, however, not so great is 4 of those last 6 ending 0-0, and the fact that since Moore got injured they’ve only managed 7 goals in as many games, three of which were against the ever plummeting Southend. Also, assuming Jack Walton deputises in goal as he did for our visit to Oakwell, he is 20 years old and has yet to keep a clean sheet in his only 5 senior appearances.

I think this is one were we’ve got to get at them from minute one. On the face of it a draw would be a decent result, but I think we’ve got goals in us, which makes me strangely optimistic so long as Keates gets his tactics right and we can have a relatively mistake free day - which are of course two huge question marks!!

For me we’ve got to get some momentum (by way of performance AND points) from these next two games to propel us into the run of games against the teams in and around us.


#180

Excellent post as ever Geordie. I am now feeling far more optimistic. Thank you.

On another note love that you posted “two huge question marks” followed by two huge exclamation marks. Love it.