Rational assessment of Season's doings

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Tom_1992
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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:18 pm

Optimistic wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:surprise surprise, another lucky win according to some posters!


I’m guessing you weren’t there?.. To be fair, a win was probably undeserved given the fact that AFCW peppered our goal with excellent chances either side of half-time, but in the end our quality (Oztumer) decided the game.

If you’re on Twitter, have a look at the statistical breakdown via the SaddlersStats account if you don’t want to believe people who were there. Their expected goals were around 2.5, whilst we were under 1. It’s obviously not a perfect way to judge the game, but should give you a sense that this wasn’t a comprehensive away victory/performance.


Correct Tom. I was not there and I don't doubt what you say. I watched the live coverage on Betfair and we both had a similar number of dangerous attacks. We always struggle against teams like AFCW and from what I read before the game JW expected a tough time so I can only guess that there was a game plan as it was expected that they would be putting a lot of balls into the box.

They were not unlucky to lose, they were just not good enough to win which is why they are in that league position. If they could take their chances they would be much higher up the table and they would be just another top 6 team who beat us. All we can do is take our chances and hope the other team do not and that's what football is all about.

If you want to talk stats then so far AFCW have scored 15 goals in 20 games and we have scored 27 in 19 so it is no surprise that they only scored 1 goal and we scored 2. Our problem is that we have been making mistakes at the back so hopefully we are putting that right.


Flipping that then, in your eyes were we unlucky to lose against Gillingham?...

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:24 pm

SoccerHQ wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:surprise surprise, another lucky win according to some posters!


I’m guessing you weren’t there?.. To be fair, a win was probably undeserved given the fact that AFCW peppered our goal with excellent chances either side of half-time, but in the end our quality (Oztumer) decided the game.

If you’re on Twitter, have a look at the statistical breakdown via the SaddlersStats account if you don’t want to believe people who were there. Their expected goals were around 2.5, whilst we were under 1. It’s obviously not a perfect way to judge the game, but should give you a sense that this wasn’t a comprehensive away victory/performance.


As I said yesterday though surely that balances the Gillingham game considering all the corners and shots at goal from Walsall.

People can't criticise Whitney for losing the Gillingham game and then criticise him for winning the Wimbledon game for being a bit lucky, that's just nuts. :lol:


Who mentioned Whitney? I just said that we got away with it a bit yesterday, just like 4-2 flattered us against Fleetwood. We deserved at least a point from the Gillingham game, though.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:36 pm

Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:surprise surprise, another lucky win according to some posters!


I’m guessing you weren’t there?.. To be fair, a win was probably undeserved given the fact that AFCW peppered our goal with excellent chances either side of half-time, but in the end our quality (Oztumer) decided the game.

If you’re on Twitter, have a look at the statistical breakdown via the SaddlersStats account if you don’t want to believe people who were there. Their expected goals were around 2.5, whilst we were under 1. It’s obviously not a perfect way to judge the game, but should give you a sense that this wasn’t a comprehensive away victory/performance.


I will be really disappointed when the EFL take 3 points off us because we didn't deserve to win.
They actually scored 2.5 goals in the second half? I must have missed those. :?

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:43 pm

saddla wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:surprise surprise, another lucky win according to some posters!


I’m guessing you weren’t there?.. To be fair, a win was probably undeserved given the fact that AFCW peppered our goal with excellent chances either side of half-time, but in the end our quality (Oztumer) decided the game.

If you’re on Twitter, have a look at the statistical breakdown via the SaddlersStats account if you don’t want to believe people who were there. Their expected goals were around 2.5, whilst we were under 1. It’s obviously not a perfect way to judge the game, but should give you a sense that this wasn’t a comprehensive away victory/performance.


I will be really disappointed when the EFL take 3 points off us because we didn't deserve to win.
They actually scored 2.5 goals in the second half? I must have missed those. :?


“Expected goals”...

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:53 pm

Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:surprise surprise, another lucky win according to some posters!


I’m guessing you weren’t there?.. To be fair, a win was probably undeserved given the fact that AFCW peppered our goal with excellent chances either side of half-time, but in the end our quality (Oztumer) decided the game.

If you’re on Twitter, have a look at the statistical breakdown via the SaddlersStats account if you don’t want to believe people who were there. Their expected goals were around 2.5, whilst we were under 1. It’s obviously not a perfect way to judge the game, but should give you a sense that this wasn’t a comprehensive away victory/performance.


Correct Tom. I was not there and I don't doubt what you say. I watched the live coverage on Betfair and we both had a similar number of dangerous attacks. We always struggle against teams like AFCW and from what I read before the game JW expected a tough time so I can only guess that there was a game plan as it was expected that they would be putting a lot of balls into the box.

They were not unlucky to lose, they were just not good enough to win which is why they are in that league position. If they could take their chances they would be much higher up the table and they would be just another top 6 team who beat us. All we can do is take our chances and hope the other team do not and that's what football is all about.

If you want to talk stats then so far AFCW have scored 15 goals in 20 games and we have scored 27 in 19 so it is no surprise that they only scored 1 goal and we scored 2. Our problem is that we have been making mistakes at the back so hopefully we are putting that right.


Flipping that then, in your eyes were we unlucky to lose against Gillingham?...


Fair enough Tom, that's a good comeback. You make your own luck in this life and you take your chances when they come along. In football luck seems to balance out over the season so that's why I made the point. Walsallone made the point rather better than I did so we were not unlucky or we were unlucky depending on your point of view. The answer is always the same when you work it both ways.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:08 pm

Optimistic wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:surprise surprise, another lucky win according to some posters!


I’m guessing you weren’t there?.. To be fair, a win was probably undeserved given the fact that AFCW peppered our goal with excellent chances either side of half-time, but in the end our quality (Oztumer) decided the game.

If you’re on Twitter, have a look at the statistical breakdown via the SaddlersStats account if you don’t want to believe people who were there. Their expected goals were around 2.5, whilst we were under 1. It’s obviously not a perfect way to judge the game, but should give you a sense that this wasn’t a comprehensive away victory/performance.


Correct Tom. I was not there and I don't doubt what you say. I watched the live coverage on Betfair and we both had a similar number of dangerous attacks. We always struggle against teams like AFCW and from what I read before the game JW expected a tough time so I can only guess that there was a game plan as it was expected that they would be putting a lot of balls into the box.

They were not unlucky to lose, they were just not good enough to win which is why they are in that league position. If they could take their chances they would be much higher up the table and they would be just another top 6 team who beat us. All we can do is take our chances and hope the other team do not and that's what football is all about.

If you want to talk stats then so far AFCW have scored 15 goals in 20 games and we have scored 27 in 19 so it is no surprise that they only scored 1 goal and we scored 2. Our problem is that we have been making mistakes at the back so hopefully we are putting that right.


Flipping that then, in your eyes were we unlucky to lose against Gillingham?...


Fair enough Tom, that's a good comeback. You make your own luck in this life and you take your chances when they come along. In football luck seems to balance out over the season so that's why I made the point. Walsallone made the point rather better than I did so we were not unlucky or we were unlucky depending on your point of view. The answer is always the same when you work it both ways.


Yeah, fair enough. The last couple of results have me cautiously optimistic about the rest of the season (I thought we were in genuine relegation danger after Gillingham) and I think we might stick around in the top half. Hopefully this isn’t the start of another of those cycles we seem to go on under Whitney where a few good results end with a battering and we end up reverting back to negative tactics.

Just a shame we’ve got a Checkatrade game now instead of a FA Cup tie!

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:24 pm

But 8 years out of the last ten years we have been knocked out of the FA cup in the first or second round so we are not missing a lot there. That's why things are not as bad as some people suggest.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:17 pm

Tom_1992 wrote:
saddla wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:surprise surprise, another lucky win according to some posters!


I’m guessing you weren’t there?.. To be fair, a win was probably undeserved given the fact that AFCW peppered our goal with excellent chances either side of half-time, but in the end our quality (Oztumer) decided the game.

If you’re on Twitter, have a look at the statistical breakdown via the SaddlersStats account if you don’t want to believe people who were there. Their expected goals were around 2.5, whilst we were under 1. It’s obviously not a perfect way to judge the game, but should give you a sense that this wasn’t a comprehensive away victory/performance.


I will be really disappointed when the EFL take 3 points off us because we didn't deserve to win.
They actually scored 2.5 goals in the second half? I must have missed those. :?


“Expected goals”...


So it's a bit like the government saying that they expect the economy to grow by 2.5% when everyone knows that there's no chance of that happening.

I have repeatedly commented on SaddlersStats twitter posts that the only statistic that counts when the EFL decide who gets promoted and relegated is the number of points gained and the goals scored and conceded. You don't get any points for expected goals only real ones. It would be interesting to know what proportion of matches results actually match up with the "expected" number of goals. I would expect not many.
I checked. All of our last 5 games have had not only incorrect scores when compared to the "expected" goals but the incorrect result too.
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics as Winston Churchill once said.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:30 am

Optimistic wrote:But 8 years out of the last ten years we have been knocked out of the FA cup in the first or second round so we are not missing a lot there. That's why things are not as bad as some people suggest.


Try ths one then :
Since the inception of the League Cup in 1960/61, there has only been ONE occasion where the Super Saddlers have exited both FA and League Cups at the first hurdle in two consecutive seasons.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:00 am

Tom_1992 wrote:
saddla wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:surprise surprise, another lucky win according to some posters!


I’m guessing you weren’t there?.. To be fair, a win was probably undeserved given the fact that AFCW peppered our goal with excellent chances either side of half-time, but in the end our quality (Oztumer) decided the game.

If you’re on Twitter, have a look at the statistical breakdown via the SaddlersStats account if you don’t want to believe people who were there. Their expected goals were around 2.5, whilst we were under 1. It’s obviously not a perfect way to judge the game, but should give you a sense that this wasn’t a comprehensive away victory/performance.


I will be really disappointed when the EFL take 3 points off us because we didn't deserve to win.
They actually scored 2.5 goals in the second half? I must have missed those. :?


“Expected goals”...


Ah Expected Goals. The most ridiculous "stat" in football. Oh you expect a team at home to be more likely to score in the last ten minutes with the other team leading by one? Shocking.

I don't need expected goals to tell me 2-1 away from home means we didn't batter them. Comprehensive away performance is one where you score more goals, not expected but actual ones, than the other team.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:11 am

moaning saddler wrote:
Optimistic wrote:But 8 years out of the last ten years we have been knocked out of the FA cup in the first or second round so we are not missing a lot there. That's why things are not as bad as some people suggest.


Try ths one then :
Since the inception of the League Cup in 1960/61, there has only been ONE occasion where the Super Saddlers have exited both FA and League Cups at the first hurdle in two consecutive seasons.

With JW in charge? :lol:
Last edited by chunkster on Mon Nov 27, 2017 2:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:59 am

El_Nombre wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
saddla wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:surprise surprise, another lucky win according to some posters!


I’m guessing you weren’t there?.. To be fair, a win was probably undeserved given the fact that AFCW peppered our goal with excellent chances either side of half-time, but in the end our quality (Oztumer) decided the game.

If you’re on Twitter, have a look at the statistical breakdown via the SaddlersStats account if you don’t want to believe people who were there. Their expected goals were around 2.5, whilst we were under 1. It’s obviously not a perfect way to judge the game, but should give you a sense that this wasn’t a comprehensive away victory/performance.


I will be really disappointed when the EFL take 3 points off us because we didn't deserve to win.
They actually scored 2.5 goals in the second half? I must have missed those. :?


“Expected goals”...


Ah Expected Goals. The most ridiculous "stat" in football. Oh you expect a team at home to be more likely to score in the last ten minutes with the other team leading by one? Shocking.

I don't need expected goals to tell me 2-1 away from home means we didn't batter them. Comprehensive away performance is one where you score more goals, not expected but actual ones, than the other team.


Agree its a rubbish stat which will very rarely favour the away side , especially those playing on the counter attack.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:59 pm

Out of interest, how are Expected Goals calculated?

Is this done prior to the game, based on previous results, form, line-up, playing home/away.
Or
Is this done based on how many chances the team had during the game and how clear-cut each of those chances were?

Cheers,
LD

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:16 pm

Never mind. A quick Google and I've not only answered my own question but found this gem of a site for the sad stattos amongst us:

https://experimental361.com/category/divisions/league-1/

2nd post from the top shows how, as the Don's peppered our goal in the 2nd half, their expected goals rose. Ozzy's goal barely registered as a chance...but it sure didn't stop him!

Apologies as it's slightly off topic, but makes an interesting read.

LD

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:13 pm

Just a note to JB if you do pull the plug on Whitney then wait until Megson has got another job :lol: because if Pardew gets the job at Albion then he will be looking for another post :mrgreen:

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:31 pm

El_Nombre wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
saddla wrote:
Tom_1992 wrote:
Optimistic wrote:surprise surprise, another lucky win according to some posters!


I’m guessing you weren’t there?.. To be fair, a win was probably undeserved given the fact that AFCW peppered our goal with excellent chances either side of half-time, but in the end our quality (Oztumer) decided the game.

If you’re on Twitter, have a look at the statistical breakdown via the SaddlersStats account if you don’t want to believe people who were there. Their expected goals were around 2.5, whilst we were under 1. It’s obviously not a perfect way to judge the game, but should give you a sense that this wasn’t a comprehensive away victory/performance.


I will be really disappointed when the EFL take 3 points off us because we didn't deserve to win.
They actually scored 2.5 goals in the second half? I must have missed those. :?


“Expected goals”...


Ah Expected Goals. The most ridiculous "stat" in football. Oh you expect a team at home to be more likely to score in the last ten minutes with the other team leading by one? Shocking.

I don't need expected goals to tell me 2-1 away from home means we didn't batter them. Comprehensive away performance is one where you score more goals, not expected but actual ones, than the other team.


Yeah fair enough, I was just using it as another way to analyse the game as I’d given my view (having been there) and some didn’t agree with how I saw it.

Personally, any stat that takes into account the quality of chances compared to just “shots” does probably give a more accurate reflection, but agree that it’s not perfect. Hopefully it can become more refined as just “shots on target” doesn’t really cut it.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:34 pm

Indeed. Football being football, though, "We battered them, apart from the score" will remain a common complaint.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:52 pm

Have I read correctly, Walsall go 8th if they win the game in hand (admittedly a very difficult one at Blackburn).

Maybe not quite the end of the world then. Nearly half the season gone aswell, not just 3-4 games when teams are in false positions.

Call me crazy but I still think Walsall can finish above the sloppies aswell.... :mrgreen:

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:11 pm

SoccerHQ wrote:Have I read correctly, Walsall go 8th if they win the game in hand (admittedly a very difficult one at Blackburn).

Maybe not quite the end of the world then. Nearly half the season gone aswell, not just 3-4 games when teams are in false positions.

Call me crazy but I still think Walsall can finish above the sloppies aswell.... :mrgreen:


Not crazy at all, I think you are right...Though we do still have to suffer our now annual 1-4 drubbing at home to Scunny soon on the horizon......however, to call the fixture at Blackburn 'a difficult one' is like asking Manchester City to lose their first match this season, at home to Newport in the FA Cup!
Blackburn is like a repeat of our now somewhat ancient annual mauling at Huddersfield. A defeat is written in stone, we fall apart in front of any 'once great' team, and Blackburn have that second place spot in their sights for an immediate return to the championship with Wiggin, we will be tossed aside like flotsam.
But I don't care as long as we can humble Rothrum in revenge for our earlier humiliation, and can stay round about mid table (for a change).
Always optimistic................ :lol: :lol:
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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:45 pm

Ancient Moaner wrote:
SoccerHQ wrote:Have I read correctly, Walsall go 8th if they win the game in hand (admittedly a very difficult one at Blackburn).

Maybe not quite the end of the world then. Nearly half the season gone aswell, not just 3-4 games when teams are in false positions.

Call me crazy but I still think Walsall can finish above the sloppies aswell.... :mrgreen:


Not crazy at all, I think you are right...Though we do still have to suffer our now annual 1-4 drubbing at home to Scunny soon on the horizon......however, to call the fixture at Blackburn 'a difficult one' is like asking Manchester City to lose their first match this season, at home to Newport in the FA Cup!
Blackburn is like a repeat of our now somewhat ancient annual mauling at Huddersfield. A defeat is written in stone, we fall apart in front of any 'once great' team, and Blackburn have that second place spot in their sights for an immediate return to the championship with Wiggin, we will be tossed aside like flotsam.
But I don't care as long as we can humble Rothrum in revenge for our earlier humiliation, and can stay round about mid table (for a change).
Always optimistic................ :lol: :lol:
UTS


Nope - the word you were looking for is "jetsam" (debris deliberately thrown overboard, from the verb "to jettison") :wink:

Other than that .... couldn't agree more with you - have you seen Scunthorpe's current form? :shock:

:D

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:27 am

Just read this and it's very true to all fans. The internet has changed football fans forever:

https://tomkinstimes.com/2015/02/the-madness-and-depression-of-football-fans/

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:00 am

That is a very good article and your conclusion is spot on.....

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:21 pm

Welsh_Saddler wrote:
Ancient Moaner wrote:
SoccerHQ wrote:Have I read correctly, Walsall go 8th if they win the game in hand (admittedly a very difficult one at Blackburn).

Maybe not quite the end of the world then. Nearly half the season gone aswell, not just 3-4 games when teams are in false positions.

Call me crazy but I still think Walsall can finish above the sloppies aswell.... :mrgreen:


Not crazy at all, I think you are right...Though we do still have to suffer our now annual 1-4 drubbing at home to Scunny soon on the horizon......however, to call the fixture at Blackburn 'a difficult one' is like asking Manchester City to lose their first match this season, at home to Newport in the FA Cup!
Blackburn is like a repeat of our now somewhat ancient annual mauling at Huddersfield. A defeat is written in stone, we fall apart in front of any 'once great' team, and Blackburn have that second place spot in their sights for an immediate return to the championship with Wiggin, we will be tossed aside like flotsam.
But I don't care as long as we can humble Rothrum in revenge for our earlier humiliation, and can stay round about mid table (for a change).
Always optimistic................ :lol: :lol:
UTS


Nope - the word you were looking for is "jetsam" (debris deliberately thrown overboard, from the verb "to jettison") :wink:

Other than that .... couldn't agree more with you - have you seen Scunthorpe's current form? :shock:

:D


Indeed I have...was watching them at home (playing Donny I think), and thought, goodness (only in stronger terms) how would our child like defenders, aka Kinsella & Flanagan, cope with strongarm tactics from more worldly players like them, intent on being there or thereabouts at the end of the season, the difference is staggering.

Oh, and thanks for the correction, never was very good at English Language, despite passing my GCE, whilst failing Maths, only to become an accountant, with fancy letters after my name! Go figure, as the Americans would say. :D :D

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:55 pm

Ancient Moaner wrote:
Welsh_Saddler wrote:
Ancient Moaner wrote:
SoccerHQ wrote:Have I read correctly, Walsall go 8th if they win the game in hand (admittedly a very difficult one at Blackburn).

Maybe not quite the end of the world then. Nearly half the season gone aswell, not just 3-4 games when teams are in false positions.

Call me crazy but I still think Walsall can finish above the sloppies aswell.... :mrgreen:


Not crazy at all, I think you are right...Though we do still have to suffer our now annual 1-4 drubbing at home to Scunny soon on the horizon......however, to call the fixture at Blackburn 'a difficult one' is like asking Manchester City to lose their first match this season, at home to Newport in the FA Cup!
Blackburn is like a repeat of our now somewhat ancient annual mauling at Huddersfield. A defeat is written in stone, we fall apart in front of any 'once great' team, and Blackburn have that second place spot in their sights for an immediate return to the championship with Wiggin, we will be tossed aside like flotsam.
But I don't care as long as we can humble Rothrum in revenge for our earlier humiliation, and can stay round about mid table (for a change).
Always optimistic................ :lol: :lol:
UTS



Nope - the word you were looking for is "jetsam" (debris deliberately thrown overboard, from the verb "to jettison") :wink:

Other than that .... couldn't agree more with you - have you seen Scunthorpe's current form? :shock:

Indeed I have...was watching them at home (playing Donny I think), and thought, goodness (only in stronger terms) how would our child like defenders, aka Kinsella & Flanagan, cope with strongarm tactics from more worldly players like them, intent on being there or thereabouts at the end of the season, the difference is staggering.

Oh, and thanks for the correction, never was very good at English Language, despite passing my GCE, whilst failing Maths, only to become an accountant, with fancy letters after my name! Go figure, as the Americans would say. :D :D



Score from that game....Blackburn 0-3 Doncaster. :wink:

They have improved a lot recently, date of the postponed game would've been a good time to face them.

Hope they stay down for another year as woud like to tick off Ewood Park and can't make it up there for whatever midweek it gets re-arranged for.
Last edited by SoccerHQ on Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:17 pm

Were you about to say something HQ my friend?

I once did almost a full and stunning essay on some subject or other in another thread, the content of which, I was truly proud, pressed submit, to be told "this page cannot be displayed". The entire monologue is instantly lost for good.
From the IT literate crowd out there, and for us older folk, somewhat less than up to date with computing, is there a way round this utterly shattering loss?

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:19 pm

Ancient Moaner wrote:Were you about to say something HQ my friend?

I once did almost a full and stunning essay on some subject or other in another thread, the content of which, I was truly proud, pressed submit, to be told "this page cannot be displayed". The entire monologue is instantly lost for good.
From the IT literate crowd out there, and for us older folk, somewhat less than up to date with computing, is there a way round this utterly shattering loss?


Before pressing submit right click on it and copy it. Then if it is lost just right click again and paste it. Job done. 8)

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:24 am

swampysaddler wrote:
Ancient Moaner wrote:Were you about to say something HQ my friend?

I once did almost a full and stunning essay on some subject or other in another thread, the content of which, I was truly proud, pressed submit, to be told "this page cannot be displayed". The entire monologue is instantly lost for good.
From the IT literate crowd out there, and for us older folk, somewhat less than up to date with computing, is there a way round this utterly shattering loss?


Before pressing submit right click on it and copy it. Then if it is lost just right click again and paste it. Job done. 8)


Thanx, will do that next time I do a reasonably acceptable post! Folk will just have to get used to the monotonously upbeat and optimistic nature of my posts! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:34 pm

Ancient Moaner wrote:
swampysaddler wrote:
Ancient Moaner wrote:Were you about to say something HQ my friend?

I once did almost a full and stunning essay on some subject or other in another thread, the content of which, I was truly proud, pressed submit, to be told "this page cannot be displayed". The entire monologue is instantly lost for good.
From the IT literate crowd out there, and for us older folk, somewhat less than up to date with computing, is there a way round this utterly shattering loss?


Before pressing submit right click on it and copy it. Then if it is lost just right click again and paste it. Job done. 8)


Thanx, will do that next time I do a reasonably acceptable post! Folk will just have to get used to the monotonously upbeat and optimistic nature of my posts! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


I was convinced that you had already been copying and pasting the same post for a very very very long time. :wink:

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:48 am

SaigonSaddler wrote:These are the results and what I'd accept based on the current situation of the club and various resources. 16 points. We're currently -2 points down on what I'd realistically expect, which is near enough and good enough. But please do feel free to comment and explain how you'd expect us to fayre at the moment. This is not 'correct', just my own opinion, but I'd be interested to hear why, for example you'd expect us to beat Bradford, Wigan or Blackburn etc.

Team ....... Accepted...... Result.........

Bury (a) D L
Oldham (h) W W
Pompey (a) D D
Bradford (h) D D
Plymouth (h) W W
Brizzle Rovers (a) D L
Botherham (a) D L
Posh (h) D D
Oxford (a) D W
Charlton (h) D D
Wigan (a) D L
Sloppies (h) D D

Next fixtures ...

Blackpool (h) W
MK Dongs (a) D
Donny (a) D
Shrimpers (h) W
Blackburn (a) D
Gills (h) W
Fleetwood (h) W?
Dons (a) W?


So after all those games here are the results compare to your expectations:

Blackpool (h) W D
MK Dongs (a) D D
Donny (a) D W
Shrimpers (h) W L
Blackburn (a) D P
Gills (h) W L
Fleetwood (h) W? W
Dons (a) W? W

Taking out the postponed Blackburn game you were expecting around 17 points and we got 11. So already behind.

Here are the games since:

Scunthorpe (h) W
Northampton (a) L
Rochdale (a) D
Bristol Rovers (h) D

Bearing in mind the opposition being mostly in or around the relegation zone I’d have expected 8-10 points. We got 5.

Interested what your thoughts are now Saigon?

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Re: Rational assessment of Season's doings

Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:41 am

SaddlerSteve wrote:
SaigonSaddler wrote:These are the results and what I'd accept based on the current situation of the club and various resources. 16 points. We're currently -2 points down on what I'd realistically expect, which is near enough and good enough. But please do feel free to comment and explain how you'd expect us to fayre at the moment. This is not 'correct', just my own opinion, but I'd be interested to hear why, for example you'd expect us to beat Bradford, Wigan or Blackburn etc.

Team ....... Accepted...... Result.........
Bury (a) D L
Oldham (h) W W
Pompey (a) D D
Bradford (h) D D
Plymouth (h) W W
Brizzle Rovers (a) D L
Botherham (a) D L
Posh (h) D D
Oxford (a) D W
Charlton (h) D D
Wigan (a) D L
Sloppies (h) D D

Next fixtures ...
Blackpool (h) W
MK Dongs (a) D
Donny (a) D
Shrimpers (h) W
Blackburn (a) D
Gills (h) W
Fleetwood (h) W?
Dons (a) W?


So after all those games here are the results compare to your expectations:
Blackpool (h) W D
MK Dongs (a) D D
Donny (a) D W
Shrimpers (h) W L
Blackburn (a) D P
Gills (h) W L
Fleetwood (h) W? W
Dons (a) W? W

Taking out the postponed Blackburn game you were expecting around 17 points and we got 11. So already behind.

Here are the games since:
Scunthorpe (h) W
Northampton (a) L
Rochdale (a) D
Bristol Rovers (h) D

Bearing in mind the opposition being mostly in or around the relegation zone I’d have expected 8-10 points. We got 5.

Interested what your thoughts are now Saigon?


Firstly these weren't predictions, they are what I would personally accept. Everyone seems to miss this, so it's worth noting again.

I think the three wins changed the atmosphere somewhat, lifting the pressure on Whitney.

I would have taken a draw vs Scunthorpe, 2 away draws and a win against Rovers at home = 6 points. So we are 1 point down on that. I'm not going to argue about results, expectations, teams in the relegation zone because it's entirely up to you what you deem acceptable. 10 points from 4 is basically promotion form though.
We're currently on 7-9-7 WDL, which seems bang average mid-table fayre. I didn't have any expectations to challenge for promotion this year, predominantly due to the Bonser stranglehold which Whitney seems to be distracting everyone from. Having seen the Rovers game, it's likely another manager could get more out of the team but not that much more. It is Whitney's team so I (personally) think he deserves a decent shot at what it can do.

These are what I'd deem acceptable for the next few games. It's rather a disappointing set of results but is what I'd grudgingly accept based on what we seem capable of:

Rotherham (h) D
Plymouth (a) D
Oxford (h) D
Charlton (a) D
Rochdale (h) W
Blackburn (a) D

I'll think we'll sneak a win or two, and lose one or two resulting in a higher points total. Dunno if my thoughts will enrage people but *shrug* that's up to you. I'm sure everyone has a different set of expectations so my input is as meaningless / ful as anyone else's. I think some seriously thought that we'd be in the relegation zone now - we're not (predictably) so much of the hysteria has died down, along with my need to challenge some of the more outlandish complaints.

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