Over the last few months I have been emotionally betting against the saddlers. Last year the state in which I reside, North Carolina, introduced online betting. Many sites offered financial incentives for new accounts. Deposit 5 bucks and get 200 bucks credit. To be clear I’m as tight as a ducks ass and rarely gamble.
However…. Some of the odds of the opposition winning or drawing have been quite extraordinary, especially just after the Christmas period. So I went ahead with some conservative bets against the Saddlers.
Hence emotional betting. Bet 30 bucks on a draw or loss (to The Saddlers) and if the Saddlers win I was happy to lose my money because of the points on up.
What has surprised me until recently with the odds on the Donny game (draw +235, Donny win +105) is how The Saddlers have been very strong favorites.
For example I got +310 for a draw with the Dons and Gillingham. A Swindon win was at +450
I guess my question is, have the odds been the same in England? Surely the bookies must use the same algorithm picks?
I feel, I must state, it ruins my weekend or Tuesday afternoon if they lose but I’m getting close to paying for a nice vacation with my winnings.
Once again I have bet against them on Tuesday night but I desperately want to lose my money for the points.
Betting is highly regulated in NZ, only the government-appointed provider, TAB, is allowed to trade, so no decent options for me unless I’m online.
I don’t understand the odds in the format you’ve written, but yeah, I said the same to my mate the other week, I don’t know how we’re favourites for some of these games given our form. I can only assume that they use the league table as an absolute rather than form when working out odds for league 2 matches.
A lot of it is based on bets placed. We’re not backed well so odds reflect that, especially against more popular teams, which is most, at least in the betting world. There’s less in the pot for a Walsall win and the odds reflect that.
They look like they’re similar to our decimal odds but without the decimal point. 310 would be 3.1 ,just over 2/1 in fractional; 450 , 7/2 which does seem close to what Swindon would have been over here. ( For some reason the £1 stake you get back is included in decimal odds but not fractional.)
Walsalls last 10 XG scores are
Walsall 1.16 v Gillingham 0.53
Walsall 1.12 v Chesterfield 1.02
Morecambe 1.14 v Walsall 1.01
Cheltenham 1.13 v Walsall 2.50
Walsall 0.71 v Swindon 0.6
Carlisle 0.57 v Walsall 1.65
Walsall 0.68 v Grimsby 1.8
Bromley 0.87 v Walsall 0.84
Gillingham 0.96 v Walsall 1.63
Walsall 1.51 v Wimbledon 0.73
Total Walsall XG 12.86 Total opponents XG 9.35
Walsall average XG per game 1.286 Opponents average XG per game 0.935
So based on recent statistics a reasonable guess is that Walsall are 0.35 goals stronger than the average opponent.
Given this, it isn’t that surprising that Walsall are favourites to win games.
That makes sense, cheers
Good information, thank you.
I have bet against again for tomorrow’s game. I really hope I lose my money.
If you want value you can get 14/5 on a Walsall win tomorrow.
Yes, DaftKings over here has them at +280 also.
But they’ll never win I take that bet 