Yeah I’m still a little bit in the dark on xG and xA if I’m honest.
I can’t quite work out if a player exceeds his xG is he scoring goals that he couldn’t really sustain as a standard….and sooner or later it’ll tail off or if a player under performs his xG does that mean he’s getting chances and with an improved skill level or more luck is he potentially a much better player than is being shown……
Same with xA……if a player has a lower xA than actual A does that mean he’s been fortunate that players have scored from areas not really associated with being a good chance? Or does a higher xA than actual A mean players should’ve been scoring more from chances created…
What I can gather is if it’s used by betting companies to help fix odds then I’d say it has some substance as you don’t see the bookies getting much wrong too often!!
I guess as confusing as that may be, ultimately it’s probably as good a guide or better, to predicting results as anything else…if a side hasn’t been winning but the underlying data suggests they’re doing most things right I’d suggest they’re likely to start performing sooner rather than later.
For those interested Thursdays / Fridays the Ntt20 guys do a weekly betting show and their bets are based on the data beyond the result….it throws up some good ones
A better finish than expected but in the end when we had a great chance of a play off spot we fell short. Absolutely astonishing how doncaster finished 5th but what an incredible finish they had. I am still convinced that just before xmas, sat at 16th again in the league saddler was staring down the barrol but we had a couple of good results that gave him a lifeline. Its clear trivella had backed him as the squad we have is probably the best we have had since dropping down to this level. The return of Jack earing was a massive boost (im not even sure saddler had factored this in as he was banging on about how we had missed ross tierney at the time) but add this to injuries to owen evans, mccentee (who looked a real prospect especially at centre half) the preist and DD he was forced to play the two loanies and taylor allen in the back 3. The result was phenominal, 5 wins on the spin. The defence suddenly looked more solid and were scoring important goals from set pieces, what a difference a quality delivery from either side makes (taylor and hutch), compared to previous seasons where we couldn’t get the ball beyond the front post.Granted we rode our luck at times but suddenly we looked like winning every game. The wingbacks were doing everthing they could to block crosses instead of standing off and the whole back 5 were throwing their bodies on the line to block shots. The injury to earing was disastrous, but matt saddlers attempts to shoe horn players back in to the team was baffling. Firstly the goalkeeper who had the shirt and deserved to keep it followed by bringing back DD and then the preist. Adeboyego did a a fantastic job and also provided a real goal threat from set pieces. DD came back in (and i get he was desperate to play) but he either wasnt ready or has lost it as he had his worst spell of form for the club in the closing games. Maybe manny was injured? But nothing has been said to confirm this. I watched DD in the game against Bradford where we needed a commanding ch to dominate cook, but as cook just dropped off to the back post DD wanted to be the spare man in the middle pointing at foulkes to try and deal with cook. All 3 goals came from cooks headers and we had no answer yet in the away game, the youngster williams? Never gave him a sniff. I do like DD, he comes across as a lovely bloke and im told is a key figure in the dressing room but either he still isnt fit or his legs have gone? Perhaps a role as defensive coach if thats the case. Trivela clearly backed saddler in january bringing gordon and faal in to replace the tremendous Freddie draper, however for all josh’s running (and i love the amount of work he gets through) he just doesnt seem to get into goalscoring positions, although he did lay on a couple of sitters for others in recent weeks which were missed. Faal looks a real prospect, i think he will be a quality player in years to come but he missed some absolute sitters in the last few games yet still seemed our player most likely to score, not sure what effect ramadam had on this. Probably the most damaging thing from last season was the DJ fiasco. Marquee signing barely played, maybe we will find out whats really gone on but i doubt it. Earlier in the season when asked why DJ wasn’t playing the reply was that they didn’t expect freddie draper to be so good yet when freddie left and we needed goals he was still left out in the cold. The run in though was a disaster, starting at mk where if we had put chances away we could of been in front at half time but got hammered second half. Even the two home games we won were dreadful performances but injury time goals kept us in the hunt. Defensively though we were dreadful for the run in. Adeboyego would be a tremendous signing next season but cant see that happening, failing that allen (who has been excellent), mccentee and either a fit DD,preist or williams could be a decent back three. Hopefully Jack earing can get a virtually full season this time.
Might also be something to do with Hutchinson who can deliver a good corner / cross / free kick and defenders that can attack the ball
Its a team game after all
The stupid thing is….Allen wasn’t in the side and also Stirk had a couple of assists from corners so not as damning……but Hutch was a regular and yet we had Tom Knowles taking corners and free kicks up until January ish!!!
Imagine the set piece record or the assist nos had hutch taken corners all season
The decision of who would take the kicks would have been made by Sadler. Last season with Flynn it seemed that Knowles took every corner, free kick and throw in everywhere on the pitch - and they were rarely any good.
Taylor Allen also delivered good corners later in the season from the other side of the pitch.
McEntee did well with his heading and also when injury forced changes we had other defenders who could score from headers.,
I suppose you’d want to look at the goals being scored and then apply judgement to decide whether the player is outperforming xG due to skill or if he is just on a lucky streak that will tail off. The longer the player exceeds xG the more reasonable it seems to attribute it to skill rather than luck.
Again, I’d argue you’d want to look at the chances missed and judge whether the player was unlucky not to score or if he is below average skill. I don’t follow your logic that if he has more luck he is potentially a better player, sorry.
Yes that would be my interpretation, other than you have said it’s because he’s been fortunate that players have scored (I.e. attributing goals to luck). I would say it could also be because the goal scorer has outperformed due to skill, which is then related to your first two points.
Either way my take is lower xA than actual A tells us that we shouldn’t buy this creative player based on his assists, because in fact the goals scored are more due to the goalscorers converting the chances at a higher than expected rate rather than the chances this player is creating.
Yes, in general I’d agree with that conclusion and you’d then want to take a closer look to see why the chances haven’t been converted which is related to your first two points
Interesting reading through this thread again. Some absolutely corking posts. Sorry The Crow but, this one was particularly interesting… hows that bet looking now? Has your mate cashed out with you yet?
There are some really balanced posts in there, some that are almost prophetic and there are many that clearly just weren’t prepared to give Sadler any chance, such as Stretch’s post below:
I guess in someways, Stretch was spot on with his prediction at the halfway point
@Harlequin there are many posts that detail and re-iterate that in Division4 you can get organised and climb out without being a Stockport or Wrexham. Just do simple things like be good defensively. Recruit sensibly. Don’t piss away your budget on a striker who you leave on the bench. Don’t sign a geriatric defender who would rather play non league footy. Don’t limp through the season playing with just one wing backin Knowles.
Shock - we tighten the defence like many on
Here said and place value on being organised and we end up top. Shock - we sign players who suit a style we end up top. Like I said if Stevenage, Crawley, Morecambe etc can get out we can. Sitting and happy clapping in to mid table isn’t good support.
It was chaos brightened by stumbling across the winning formula with the back 3 none of which were his first choice. Not going to use that as a stick to beat him with - sir Alex admitted he never saw Yorke and Cole playing together that’s football
Oh Andy you should realise that MS was supposed to get everything right from day one. The fact that very few Managers can do that isn’t an excuse. More seriously I could see what he was trying to do last season but we just didn’t have the fire power or midfielders to play as he wanted us to play. This season we do and so far it is paying off. Long may it continue.
