Might have to wait a few more years before I start an expected assists thread.
There was a whole book that looked at this a few years back. Soccernomics. Worth a read.
Iâve read that one exile - great book
So money and what goes with it ( i.e. better quality players, managers, facilities, etc) are not the reason for that then - just some pseudo-scientific measurement for statto geeks to cream themselves over?
I donât need any mathematical equations to tell me that a shot from 40 yards out has less chance of going in than one from on the goal line, or that the odds improve if itâs Messi taking the shot rather than Lavery, or even that if you donât shoot at all (like we havenât been doing in recent games) then the likelihood of you scoring lots of goals spookily also drops.
Iâve no doubt that at the top end of the scale where the difference between the top teams playing for big money can be fractional, then any way to find an edge is given attention. I can well imagine Pep or Jurgen telling their players to try and put themselves and the ball into the best possible positions in order to score, but I would imagine they do it more wearing boots on the training ground than with reams of computer printouts and a slide rule.
Abd as Iâve previously said, I can see the attraction for gamblers - it is a decent indication of form that helps you check whether the odds the bookies are offering are generourous or miserly for the on-paper expected result the xG numbers predict. Absolutely bollock all use though in determining what the actual result turns out to be - that depends on what those 22 blokes chasing a pigâs bladder (plus the 3 others with charge accounts at Specsavers) actually do on the day.
Another thing that xG doesnât help at all with - what differentiation does it make between the Big Samâs Bolton/Crazy Gang Wimbledon/any team managed by Howard Wilkinson hoof and run style of play and the easy on the eye silky Man City/Barcelona/early Wenger way - and everything in between? Does it tell you which teams give their fans pleasure in watching them even when they lose (whether in line with what xG predicts ir not) because theyâve still been entertained, and which are painful for even the die hards to watch even when theyâve won?
Also, if xG says the result of a game ought to have been 4-0 but it was actually only 2-1, does it change how the points are awarded or how the respective fans are feeling?
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I donât think anyone is suggesting that has xG should be the only analysis of a particular match or potential signing. It absolutely has its uses and is a tool that along with a whole range of other stats is used by clubs at all levels of the game.
Personally, I think itâs most worthy to asses over a longer period to see whether a run of form is sustainable or not. If youâre consistently over and under performing your xG, it is usually a good indicator that results will soon start to turn one way or the other. Like I say, itâs not supposed to be used in isolation, obviously, but it can help provide another viewpoint on results and form.
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Thatâs fine - Iâm not knocking the fact that xG exists (or any of the other myriad stats that it is possible to have in football), or having a go at anyone that loves that sort of stuff (some of it is interesting - even to me), but I donât think the emphasis being put on it/them is warranted. It might have its place as an additional tool that some might find helpful, but it isnât the be all and end all that should govern a game like football.
Unlike some (and there are a good few on here going by some of the posts) I actually donât want a return to the 1970s. Grounds and facilities were generally crap (even by standards of the time - even worse compared with what we should expect nowadays), not to mention the violence. And while our style of play was comparatively exciting (at least some of the time - I do remember a lot of dross back then too though) I have no doubt that if it was possible for our current squad to meet up across time with a team from that era then, comparatively, even the mediocre modern players would actually look as good if not better than the cream of the crop all us oldsters are still drooling about. Thatâs not saying that if, say, a young Alan Buckley was put into age-free stasis in the early 70s and then defrosted today that he wouldnât adapt to and flourish in the modern age and be just as good as we all remember, but Buckley on the 70s diet and fitness regime, training methods, old style ball and boots, compared directly with, for example, Lavery would be like a comparing the milk manâs horse against one that is good enough to be entered in the 3:30 at Kempton (albeit they might only be a back marker at best - and likely shot after the race 
).
Thatâs because things have changed - not only rules and how the game is played, but also how it is viewed and what it means to be a professional footballer these days. Iâll doubt that you will find any modern player coming onto the pitch with a cigarette on the go, or riding to work on the bus. Times have moved on.
Modern scientific training and injury treatment, new style formations, even the level of player wages (apart from the truly obscene) - by and large improvements on how it used to be.
But (and itâs a big BUT) not everything is an improvement. I understand the need to bring in goal line technology and VAR for the top level games where mistakes can have massive impacts (although thatâs also more to do with how much money is in the game these days) but when goals or other major decisions can be decided on the width of the hair on a gnatâs chuff and it takes 5 minutes to make that decision, something has gone wrong somewhere.
And to me, while it is certainly not top of my list of bugbears, xG falls more into the bad rather than good âimprovementâ pile. Again, it probably has its place in some circumstances, but itâs not front and centre,
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All of this boils down to finishing doesnât it? Look at Mullin at Cambridge: his goals have pushed an average team into a top 6 team.
My concern is that Reid, Osei and AM Vincent all have 0 league goals. Lavery is top scorer on 6.
We were linked with Kabongo Tshimanga from Boreham Wood in the January transfer window and ended up with a last minute âfavourâ from Oxford Utd. Looking at the BW team, KT is paired with Junior Morais (on loan from St. Mirren)! And this is a team sitting 9th in the tableâŚ
These two strikers would walk into our starting eleven and instantly improve the team. Aged 23 and 25, it does make me wonder how we could even compete at non league level, looking at our current squadâŚ
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In fairness I was defending criticisms that werenât there. As usual I didnât read the thread properly 
I love data and analysis and I think clubs at our level especially need to be getting that extra 5 percent edge where possible. Iâm sure Walsall have an Analyst anyway.
Another poster mentioned itâs all down to finishing. It is. For me football has always been about moments, and you need to take them. Other than Lavery tackling the keeper the other day I find it hard to remember a time we punished an error, something which teams do to us over and over again. Not sure if stats exist for thatâŚ
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Iâd also be intrigued to know how many goals in league two could be attributed from a direct âerrorâ rather than the side passing or crossing it into a chance. I bet its quite high.
No, but it might for the next game 
So you think Premier League teams are more homogenous with regards to talent than League Two teams? I would argue the opposite; the difference between teams in the fourth division is tiny compared to teams in the first division. And I would argue, therefore, the non-playing staff - managers, coaches, analysts and so on - of League Two teams have a greater say in both the performances and results of their teams than their Premier League counterparts.
I did not say you did. What I said was your attitude and that of others towards datasets some clubs have used to punch well above their weight - for example, Oakland in Major League Baseball, which inspired Moneyball, Midtylland in the Danish Superligaen and Melbourne in the National Rugby League - is one of the many reasons why Walsall is going backwards at a rate of knots and being overtaken by more progressive clubs with a more analytical mindset.
I have accrued most of my professional experience across two industries - sports bookmaking and elite sport. Odds compilers are some of the sharpest analysts in any sphere and let me assure you they use xG and other datasets to frame the markets on which they take millions of pounds in bets. There are many more instances of initial markets matching xG projections as opposed to raw league tables, and xG/xP data is the opposite of absolutely bollock all use when it comes to forecasting long-term outcomes such as championships, promotions and relegations. And I worked at a high administrative level of an elite sports club where the introduction of data analytics by a new management team resulted in a rapid and positive turnaround in not only results but also culture.
The hyperlink below launches a comprehensive review of League Two last season, and it includes insights into the style of teams, insights supported by data. There are also numbers to suggest Liam Roberts is not the answer between the sticks for Walsall. Football is not all about finishing.
https://www.statsperform.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/12-2019-season-review-2.html
I will remind you of this the next time Walsall plays a team off the park and loses - admittedly, that may not be for many years - and you say you do not feel despondent because the performance was good even though the result went against the Saddlers.
I found these on Experimental 3-6-1âs website. The first one shows Josh Gordon was Walsallâs least effective finisher in the period this season until the end of January, and Elijah Adebayo was not only the most effective finisher for the Saddlers but also very high in the League Two rankings. Again, it is another dataset that attempts - successfully, I think - to replace subjectivity with objectivity, and the type of information I would want if I was making hiring and firing decisions with regards to a squad. The second and third ones show the numbers for Cambridge (Paul Mullin is League Twoâs leading goal scorer) and Crawley (Max Watters is a player who will be on the radar of data-driven clubs).
2019-2020
2018-2019
2017-2018
2016-2017
And those are Experimental 3-6-1âs attacking breakdowns for Walsall in recently completed seasons. If I was in charge of Walsall, I would have used them and other club-specific ones to help me manage. For example, there was data to support extending Adebayoâs contract long before this season began.
In summary, the only way for a club such as Walsall to punch above its weight is to work smarter, not harder. It has always been thus. You and I may not have liked their methods but the likes of Graham Taylor, Dave Bassett and John Beck worked smarter, not harder, with Watford, Wimbledon and Cambridge, respectively, in the 1980s. I stand to be corrected but I think Beck was the first manager in the English leagues to employ a data analyst and he took Cambridge to within 90 minutes of the top flight. Information is king, knowledge is power, and Walsall has neither under its current regime.
One final comment: can people please refrain from saying Walsall is, and I quote, âknown for its good style of footballâ because there is no empirical evidence to support such a claim, at least not from last season when, as per usual, Crewe played the most intricate brand in its division. I have supported Walsall for 34 years - home and away for the first 14 - and, apart from some of the Dean Smith years, the style of football has been functional at best, and certainly not on a par with the likes of Crewe. I think the style of football at Walsall is worse now than it was during the dark days of Kenny Hibbittâs reign.
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Wise words. Club needs to read this and act on it. Was hoping Pomlett would change things. Even if he canât change the â â â â â cabarets in The Venue, he absolutely has to find a way to change whatâs on the pitch.
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The key football-related appointment is the manager. In hindsight, Darrell Clarke was not the right man for the job, and I think there is already enough evidence Brian Dutton is not. If I were Leigh Pomlett, I would be scouring the lower leagues for a progressive football manager/management team. Walsall needs to find the next Graham Potter, who went to Sweden and worked miracles with Ostersund. I have zero faith in that being the approach with Pomlett, Stefan Gamble and Daniel Mole running the show, though. It is nothing personal, just my assessment based on years of decay, particularly on the non-football side of the business, which cannot even operate an online shop competently.
Potter: Graham Potter at Ăstersund: His Formative Time in Sweden
It was no surprise to me Tony Bloom (see above) hired Potter as Brighton boss, and xG data says the Seagulls will eventually receive their rewards. It is a matter of when, not if, Brighton climbs the table.
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When youâre so incompetent one of your own supporters groups does the job better and throws you some crumbs as donations. How shameful is this for the club?
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Yes, ISSAâs classic shirts have put Walsallâs operation to shame. Even the throwback Walsall kit the club produced was terrible, mainly because the badge was as ugly as a bulldog chewing a wasp.
Leigh, if you are reading this thread - having worked in senior executive capacities within elite sports organisations not dissimilar to Walsall, my free professional advice to you is monitor all communication channels pertaining to the Saddlers - I am here to help. I mean it. Drop me a private message and I will share my resume with you. Things have to change, and I would like to think I could make a positive difference. I am not a chancer; I am an experienced sports administrator with domestic, national and international experience whose car number plate is Saddler and who wants Walsall to succeed.
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Iâll back his play, Leigh. Known him long enough, albeit virtually, and know heâs walking the talk.
Heâs only asked me for advice once too, and came out on top. 
Excellent taste, sir.
Only six letters available in NZâŚand nobody knock the ST, itâs a rare classic down here with no chav downside!
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Thanks, Exile. I cannot believe I have submitted an en-spec job application via an online forum, but I have had a gutful of watching Walsall lurch from one disaster to another. I would be willing to move from Australia to the United Kingdom if Leigh came knocking. I do not expect him to do so, but I have offered and that is pretty much all I can do from 9,000 miles away. It was time to either put up or shut up.