Shrewsbury Town (A) May 4th, 5.30pm

Match Centre 24/25 Match Centre 18/19
41

All these are point probabilities with no error and/or priors.

Largely point(less).

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42

Its a funny old game, of two halfs
you win some (over the moon)
and you loose some (sick as a parrot)
but it only takes a second to score a goal
and if the ball ends up in the back of the net I’ll be a happy man at 5 o’clock Brian

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43

half an hour before kick off!?

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44

As an alternative to using AFKALS theoretical assumption that each result is equally likely I have looked at the betting market to see what probabilities that puts on us staying up.

These are based on current Bet365 odds. I have in each case taken the average of winning and not losing, since bookies percentage odds do not add up 100.

The betting market thinks that:
Walsall have a 39% chance of winning.
Plymouth have a 58% chance of losing or drawing.
Southend have a 70% chance of losing or drawing.
Wimbledon have a 22% chance of losing.

So if we win we would, according to the betting market, have a (0.58 x 0.7 + 0.42 x 0.7 x 0.22 + 0.3 x 0.58 x 0.22) = 0.50896 probability of staying up. That makes avoiding relegation a 19.8% probability overall.

45

That’s not good mate. Given you got one last year, surely you’re on the Salop database too? Just a football fan who goes to football matches.

46

And presumably booking from a Shrewsbury address. Do you not know anyone locally who can book for you who is not on our database?

47

That’s my plan. They said it didn’t matter where I lived as I was on the Walsall one. But yes, how do they know I’m not just a general fan,or a Southend or Plymouth one? There are still alternatives.

Not sure I ever gave Walsall permission to share my data. Might look into that later.

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48

Have to question if cross-referencing from other clubs is listed in the booking T’s & C’s and whether that would have survived the new GDPR legislation. You may have a case there, Shrews.

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49

Exactly what I was thinking Simon

Going a bit off piste here but a Man U fan colleague of mine was telling me abt their own Stewards being flown into Barcelona to seek and question for passport ID at the turnstiles to seek out unauthorised travelling fans for their recent CL game and this too is unlawful and football clubs seem to think they can operate outside of ‘normal’ laws when they think they can.

the savvy Utd fans took photos of the stewards and said they’d take it up with officials/club back in the UK - they soon backed down without questioning further!

Sorry back on topic - Shrewsbury Saddler simply needs to ask the question of GDPR and I’d fair bet they’d soon refer up the chain in the ticketing dept … that’ll be Stef then - good luck!

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50

Sunderland winning could do with them getting a few goals tonight so they go for it Saturday

51

If GDPR was put in place to protect user data, sharing with an unspecified third party (whether or not it’s an EFL/police matter) is unlawful/fineable?

Be interesting to see where the loophole is here, unless it’s purely for marketing purposes.

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52

Fleetwood equalise, 73 minutes :frowning: … 1-1 now

53

Sunderland still won’t want to lose at Southend - 3rd place and / or home leg 2nd in 4th v 5th at stake

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54

Boo hoo

55

Very true

56

Does anyone know if it’s on ifollow?

57

Fleetwood 2-1 up, 95th minute!!! (Full time score is 2-1)

58

Who would have thought both Sunderland and Portsmouth would lose tonight.

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59

Pressure does funny things

60

Yep and my bank account has taken a hit :rage: